A Counterfactual Analysis of Environmental Policy Pathways Using Scenario Recombination Techniques

Environmental policy formulation faces inherent uncertainties in predicting future outcomes due to complex interactions among socio-economic, ecological, and climatic factors. Traditional approaches emphasize forecast-based predictions, which often fail to account for alternative trajectories that could have emerged under different policy configurations. This conceptual paper introduces a novel theoretical framework centered on policy counterfactual recombination, a method that systematically disassembles and reassembles elements from existing policy scenarios to generate hypothetical pathways for analysis. By shifting from predictive modeling to recombinatorial exploration, the framework enables scholars and policymakers to evaluate "what-if" questions in environmental governance, such as the potential impacts of hybridizing carbon pricing mechanisms with biodiversity conservation strategies. Drawing on recent literature in counterfactual reasoning and scenario planning, the paper synthesizes theoretical insights to highlight gaps in current paradigms, particularly the overreliance on linear projections. The proposed framework comprises three core components: scenario decomposition, element recombination, and pathway evaluation, facilitating a deeper understanding of policy resilience and adaptability. This approach contributes to environmental science by offering a tool for conceptualizing non-linear policy dynamics, ultimately supporting more robust strategies for sustainability transitions. No empirical data or simulations are employed; the focus remains on theoretical advancement.