A Conceptual Model Linking Environmental Degradation and Social Resilience Thresholds under Climate Stress

Climate change exacerbates environmental degradation, posing profound challenges to social systems worldwide. This conceptual manuscript introduces a novel theoretical framework that elucidates the threshold-based coupling between ecological degradation and social resilience under persistent climate stress. Drawing on recent peer-reviewed literature, we synthesize key concepts from ecology and social sciences to argue that environmental thresholds —points where incremental changes lead to abrupt shifts in ecosystem states —interact dynamically with social resilience thresholds, defined as the limits beyond which communities lose adaptive capacity. The proposed model posits that climate stress acts as a multiplier, accelerating degradation and eroding resilience through feedback loops, such as resource scarcity amplifying social inequities or biodiversity loss undermining cultural adaptive strategies. This coupling can result in cascading failures, where crossing an ecological threshold precipitates a social collapse, or vice versa, leading to regime shifts in socio-ecological systems. Unlike existing models that treat these domains separately, our framework emphasizes their interdependent thresholds, offering a unified lens for analyzing system vulnerabilities. By avoiding empirical analysis, this work focuses on theoretical integration to guide future interdisciplinary research and policy formulation aimed at enhancing systemic stability in a warming world. The implications underscore the need for proactive threshold monitoring to prevent irreversible transitions.