Archive \ Volume.7 2018 Issue 3

Assessment of Extreme Climate Indices Over Libya and Its Relationship to Mortality

Mahmoud D. Gendi , S.M. Robaa , Gamil Gamal , M. M. Abdel Wahab

The main objective of this paper was to assess the variation of the different extreme climate indices over Libya from different CMIP5 models driven by different emission scenarios. Spatiotemporal variability of extreme indices was assessed for the near future period 2020-2070 which were compared to a base period 1961-1990. The results showed that there were significant trends for minimum temperature indices such as the percentage of TN10p and TX10p reaching up to 10 % by the end of 2070. For maximum temperature indices such as the percentage of TN90p and TX90p, there was a significant increase compared to the base period by 50% at the end of 2070. For precipitation, an insignificant difference was found when compared to the historical references. Also, form CORDEX models, extreme temperature indices were calculated for four stations for the near future period (2021-2055). The results for stations Sebha, Kufra, Tripoli and Shahat, had a significant increase of TX90p and TN90p, and a significant negative trend for TX10p and TN10p. The number and duration of heat waves had a positive trend for all the stations except for Kufra and Shahat which had a negative trend for the heat wave numbers. Thus, these results have been vital for special concerns regarding the effects on human health and mortality ratio.